A new study offers the first comparative, state level evidence that raising the minimum age of firearm access for young adults with juvenile justice histories may reduce gun involved violent crime. Researchers from Duke University, Yale University, the University of Virginia, and the University of Delaware collaborated on the study, which was published in the Journal of Interpersonal Violence.
Drawing on administrative records from more than 113,000 individuals adjudicated for felony equivalent offenses as juveniles, the study compares outcomes in North Carolina (minimum firearm access age 18), Delaware (age 25), and Virginia (age 29). Across all three states, individuals with juvenile adjudications experienced violent crime arrest rates 15 to 30 times higher than the general population — underscoring the well documented link between serious juvenile conduct problems and elevated risk of adult offending.
Within this high risk group, however, the researchers found that Virginia’s more restrictive age threshold was associated with substantially lower gun-involved violent crime. Young adults in Virginia were 30 to 40% less likely to be arrested for a firearm-involved violent offense than comparable cohorts in North Carolina and Delaware. The effect was specific to gun-related crimes, suggesting that delayed access to firearms — not broader behavioral or socioeconomic differences — may be driving the reduction.
“Our findings suggest that extending firearm age of access restrictions for young adults with serious juvenile records can modestly reduce gun violence risk during a period of life when that risk is naturally declining,” said Jeffrey Swanson, PhD, professor in psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Duke University School of Medicine and lead author. “Rather than presuming permanent dangerousness, the policy aligns with what we know about developmental trajectories and the elevated risks of early adulthood.”
“Rather than presuming permanent dangerousness, the policy aligns with what we know about developmental trajectories and the elevated risks of early adulthood.”
— Jeffrey Swanson, PhD
The study also highlights the limits of age-based restrictions when implemented in isolation. Delaware’s cohort showed higher early adulthood gun-involved arrest rates than North Carolina’s, despite Delaware’s later statutory age threshold. The authors note that structural factors — community firearm exposure, policing practices, and socioeconomic disadvantage — likely shape these patterns.
The findings also sit within a broader context of racial inequity. Black individuals comprise 20 to 25% of the general population in these states but 45 to 50% of the study cohorts — an imbalance that reflects well documented disparities in juvenile adjudication and arrest.
“Any policy that relies on juvenile records must be evaluated with a focus on why differences in justice processing patterns emerge,” said Ellen Donnelly, PhD, associate professor of sociology and criminal justice at the University of Delaware. “Our results show a potential public safety benefit to these age‑based gun restrictions, but they also underscore the need to address the upstream social factors and inequalities that shape who enters the juvenile system in the first place.”
The study further documents that most individuals arrested for gun-involved violent crimes were already legally prohibited from possessing firearms, reinforcing the persistent challenge of extralegal access.
“States have long struggled to balance public safety with the rights and needs of emerging adults involved with the justice system,” said Richard Bonnie, Harrison Foundation Professor of Medicine and Law Emeritus at the University of Virginia School of Law. “Regarding firearms, this study provides empirical grounding for a precautionary, time‑limited approach — one that respects constitutional rights while acknowledging the heightened risks of early adulthood and the state’s obligation to prevent avoidable harm.”
This research was supported by grants from the Joyce Foundation, the Fund for a Safer Future – New Venture Fund, and the Elizabeth K. Dollard Charitable Trust. The authors disclosed receipt of financial support for the research, authorship, and publication of the article.